Unemployment Claims And The CLF As A Recession Indicator: November 2025

Advisor Perspectives Charts 6.54K Follower s Follow 5 Share Save Play ( 5min ) Comments Summary The latest ratio of 0.13% means that out of 10,000 workers, 13 made an initial application for unemployment insurance payments in the latest data. The latest ratio of 0.130% (to three decimal points) is well below its all-time high of 2.997% (April 2020) and is slightly above its all-time low of 0.122% (October 2022). The initial claims ratio trough lead time for a recession has ranged from 3 to 22 months, with an average of 11 months. We are currently a whopping 37 months from the most recent initial claims ratio low from October 2022. designer491/iStock via Getty Images By Jennifer Nash Every week I post an update on unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes This article was written by Advisor Perspectives Charts 6.54K Follower s Follow Advisor Perspectives is a leading interactive publisher for Registered Investment Advisors. Our AP Charts & Analysis portion of our website analyzes economic and market trends.

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