Will The Bond Market Help Keep Stocks Humming In 2026?

James Picerno 6.87K Follower s Follow 5 Share Save Play ( 6min ) Comment (1) Summary Although the 10-year yield has had a volatile ride at times in 2025, looking back over the year reminds us that the general trend has been down. Reliable or not, the bond market appears to accept the view that inflation is holding in a 2.5%-3.0% range. The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecasts are also steady, trading modestly above the Fed’s 2% target. Although no one can see into the future, it’s reasonable to assume that the direction of Treasury yields in 2026 will cast a long shadow over stocks. Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images Identifying the reasons why the stock market rises or falls is challenging, if not impossible, but the slide in interest rates has surely been a non-trivial factor in lifting equities this year. A key question for 2026: Will This article was written by James Picerno 6.87K Follower s Follow James Picerno is the director of analytics at The Milwaukee Co., a wealth manager that is the adviser to The Brinsmere Funds, a pair of global asset allocation ETFs. He also edits CapitalSpectator.com and The US Business Cycle Research Report (CapitalSpectator.com/premium-research). He is the author of three books, including "Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return." Previously he was a financial journalist at Bloomberg and before that at Dow Jones.

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