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People have rightfully raised eyebrows as banks trim their workforces and funnel billions into AI capabilities. Businesses have already deployed the software in their operations, using monikers for AI tools like Socrates, performing hours’ worth of junior-level analyst tasks in just seconds. Simultaneously, a report from Citigroup has found that 54% of financial jobs “have a high potential for automation”-more than any other sector. But experts agree that AI-related layoffs have been insignificant, so far. This year’s flow of banking headcount reductions are a result of pandemic-era overhiring and economic uncertainty. “If there’s a large company that might say, ‘Well, we’re not planning to hire as much because of AI,’ or maybe ‘We’re letting people go because of AI,’ I think there’s a little bit of smoke and mirrors there,” Robert Seamans, director of New York University Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, tells Fortune. “AI is often a scapegoat for things, because it’s easier to blame AI than it is to blame softening consumer demand, or uncertainty because of tariffs, or maybe poor HR strategy the past few years in terms of over hiring coming out of COVID,” he continues, adding that “there’s a lot less political risk than blaming the president’s tariffs.” While AI isn’t capable of replacing bankers and consultants just yet, there could be trouble on the horizon for marketers and accountants, experts tell Fortune. And elite business degrees are still worth their while; the vast majority of top MBA students are still locking in job offers soon after graduation. But prospects are dwindling, and banking headcounts could stagnate for years as AI drives a massive productivity boom. AI is stifling hiring in the banking industry-and it could last for years Despite Wall Street making headlines for its relentless string of layoffs this year, headcounts across banking and finance have actually been relatively steady. “I think the general [headcount] trend in the banking industry over the last decade is stable to slightly declining. I don’t see that changing anytime soon,” Pim Hilbers, a managing director working with banking and talent at BCG, tells Fortune. “That doesn’t mean that everybody just stays in their job for life. I think we see a lot more mobility than we saw in the past.” So far, America’s largest financial institutions haven’t been making deep workforce cuts. Bank of America employed just four fewer workers at the end of the third quarter this year, compared to 2024. In that same time period, JPMorgan saw its headcount climb by 2,000 employees, and more than a third of the new staffers were brought onto corporate operations. Even Goldman Sachs, which implemented multiple rounds of layoffs this year, employed 48,300 this September-around 1,800 staffers higher than the year before. Banks aren’t ready to shed staffers just yet. Experts tell Fortune they’re pulling back on headcount growth for as long as possible, leaning on AI efficiency gains until they’re forced to add more humans to payroll. They predict this sluggish period of hiring could...

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