2 Predictions for Robinhood in 2026 | The Motley Fool

Robinhood ( HOOD +0.17%) has been one of the top-performing fintech stocks in the market, comfortably outpacing the S&P 500 with its 222% year-to-date gain. Even with that rally, it's still down by more than 20% from its all-time high. Some stocks go into the new year better than ever and swiftly climb to all-time highs. However, other stocks lose their shine as revenue growth decelerates and more investors question valuations. Investors can speculate what can happen next with Robinhood stock, but these are some predictions to monitor. Crypto transaction revenue will decelerate Image source: Getty Images. Crypto transactions were a big part of Robinhood's revenue this year. For instance, third-quarter revenue came to $1.27 billion, with $268 million of that coming from crypto trading. That part of Robinhood's business jumped by more than 300% year over year. NASDAQ: HOOD Key Data Points It's hard for any company to maintain that type of growth rate forever, and Robinhood will be no exception to the rule. More competitors are entering crypto trading , such as SoFi ( SOFI +1.07%) and Charles Schwab ( SCHW +0.66%). As more companies enable crypto trading, Robinhood will face stiffer competition, which can limit future customer growth. However, the bigger concern is the boom-and-bust nature of crypto transaction revenue. For instance, Robinhood delivered 860% year-over-year revenue growth for its crypto trading segment in Q3 2021, which was during a crypto boom. Granted, it was easier for Robinhood to deliver such a high growth rate since its crypto segment was much smaller, going from $5 million in Q3 2020 to $51 million in Q3 2021. Then, the crypto winter came, and Bitcoin ( BTC +0.31%) lost more than 70% of its value in one year. That also happened to be a miserable year for Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue, which only came in at $51 million, little changed year over year. It wasn't that long ago when Bitcoin was up by more than 30% year to date, but the famed cryptocurrency has given up all of its gains for the year. It's now down by 7% year to date (as of Dec. 23), and that includes a 30% decline in less than three months. Investors may want to brace for lower crypto transaction revenue growth in Q4 with pessimistic Q1 forecasts unless Bitcoin stages a comeback. Robinhood Gold will get more attention in press releases Current Robinhood press releases focus on three income segments: transaction-based revenue, net interest revenue, and other revenue. The "other revenue" category was heavily driven by Robinhood Gold and doubled year over year. The Robinhood Gold subscription plan gives consumers perks that let them build their portfolios faster. Interest-free margin for the first $1,000, a 3% IRA match, and high yields on idle cash are some of the perks. Robinhood increased its gold subscriber base by 77% year over year, reaching 3.9 million total subscribers in the process. Robinhood Gold subscriptions are money makers in their own right. Gold members pay $5 per month...

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