Will China come to Venezuela’s rescue?

Will China come to Venezuela’s rescue? Despite close ties with Caracas, Beijing is wary of getting dragged into a distant conflict. As Venezuela and the United States teeter on the brink of war, China has been vocal in condemning US actions. In Beijing’s view, Washington’s escalation - which includes seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, striking alleged drug-smuggling boats and imposing a blockade off the Venezuelan coast - is a textbook example of American unilateralism, infringing on another country’s sovereignty and violating the United Nations Charter. During a December 17 call with his Venezuelan counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi voiced opposition to US “unilateral bullying” and expressed his support for Venezuela’s right to “defend its sovereignty and national dignity”. Yet, Beijing has failed to offer Caracas anything beyond rhetoric. China is clearly wary of falling into a geopolitical trap and its inaction demonstrates the limits of its influence in Latin America. Engagement with Latin America For more than two decades, China has pursued an expansion of economic relations with Latin American countries. As a result, today it is South America’s top trading partner; it is also the second-largest trading partner of Mexico, one of the US’s closest allies in the region. China’s engagement with Latin American countries is fuelled by the high degree of complementarity between their economies. Agricultural goods - notably soya beans from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay - have improved China’s food security, especially during its trade war with the US. Meanwhile, minerals such as lithium carbonate from Chile, Argentina and Bolivia have become indispensable to China’s rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) industry. In recent years, Chinese EV exports to Latin America have surged, growing by 55 percent in 2023 alone. The region has not only alleviated China’s overcapacity problem, but has also offered Chinese telecommunication technology, such as Huawei’s 5G - which has long been spurned by Western countries - a market. Currently, Huawei’s 5G equipment is present in most Latin American countries. The US, traditionally viewing Latin America as its back yard, has been naturally suspicious and hostile towards China’s growing influence in the region. In February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio - an outspoken China hawk who has previously labelled the Communist Party of China an “evil, genocidal regime” - embarked on a diplomatic blitz across the region. Declaring that he was on a mission to “counter the [CPC’s] influence in the Western Hemisphere”, he sought to persuade several Latin American countries to scale back ties with China. Despite being unable to offer a compelling alternative model of economic cooperation and opting for extortion tactics through tariffs, Washington nonetheless holds the upper hand in this battle for influence. For example, although most countries in the region have been economically enticed to adhere to the one China policy, recognising that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, the region continues to be the last bastion of diplomatic support for Taiwan, with seven countries in Latin America and the Caribbean maintaining formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan over...

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