Netflix in 2026: The Three Things Investors Should Watch Closely | The Motley Fool

Netflix ( NFLX 1.24%) enters 2026 with more momentum -- and more uncertainty -- than at any point in its history. The company continues to expand its ad business, sharpen its content strategy, and invest in new growth avenues. But it also faces the defining challenge of the year: a two-front battle to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming assets. The next 12 months will determine whether Netflix strengthens its position as the world's dominant entertainment platform or gets pulled into a costly, distracting fight that delays its strategic ambitions. For investors, three areas stand out as the most important to watch in 2026. Image source: Getty Images. The two-front battle for Warner Bros. -- regulatory and competitive The Warner Bros . acquisition is more than a strategic swing. It is a full-scale test of Netflix's discipline, political navigation, and capital allocation . On one front, Netflix must win regulatory approval. U.S. and European authorities already signaled deep concerns about market power, creative concentration, and consumer impact. President Donald Trump publicly stated that he plans to "be involved," making the process even more unpredictable. Regulators may require divestitures, impose exclusivity limits, or delay the deal. Any concession could change the economics of the acquisition. On the second front, Netflix must contend with an aggressive rival. Paramount Skydance shocked the industry with a $108.4 billion counteroffer, roughly $25 billion higher than Netflix's bid. This isn't posturing. Paramount views Warner as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reset its strategic position, and a bidding war now looks increasingly likely. For Netflix, this creates a difficult balance. Walk away too early, and the company loses the chance to acquire HBO, DC Comics, and a century of cultural assets that could elevate its competitive moat. Push too hard, and Netflix risks overpaying for an asset that takes years to integrate and digest. Either scenario will influence cash flow, debt levels, and capital allocation priorities for the remainder of the decade. Investors must monitor regulatory filings, early remedy demands, and Paramount's next move. The winner of this two-front battle will shape the entertainment landscape for years. NASDAQ: NFLX Key Data Points The ad business must prove it can deliver real revenue Netflix's ad business enters 2026 with scale, not proof. The company reports more than 190 million monthly active viewers on its ad-supported tier, thanks to a broader measurement approach that counts all household viewers. That gives Netflix reach comparable to major TV networks and large digital platforms. But scale alone is not enough. Netflix must show that it can turn that reach into durable, high-margin revenue. Management promised to double ad revenue in 2025, but the company still doesn't break out ad revenues separately, leaving investors to infer performance from overall revenue growth and commentary. Don't get me wrong, Netflix has huge advantages. It has premium content, global distribution, strong engagement, and an expanding programmatic infrastructure. These are characteristics that advertisers love. Still, Netflix must deliver what advertisers want -- real return on investment (ROI)...

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