Moving From Stockpicking To QQQM And TQQQ: Plan To Beat The Market Again In 2026 (QQQM)

Geneva Investor 2.76K Follower s Follow 5 Share Save Play ( 17min ) Comments (2) Summary After a strong 2025 with a 29% return in my main account, I'm shifting from stock picking to a Nasdaq-100-focused ETFs strategy in 2026. I will keep holding core stocks. QQQM remains my largest holding (~40% portfolio), favored for cost efficiency and broad Nasdaq-100 exposure; I will continue DCA into it. I plan to add selective exposure to 3x leveraged TQQQ on new capital deployments, presenting twelve backtests on QQQ DCA and dip-buying strategies. My backtests suggest a disciplined DCA approach is preferable over aggressive dip-buying due to timing risks and leverage dangers. Key risks include leverage-induced wipeouts in prolonged bear markets (up to 80% drawdowns in backtests), volatility decay in flat/sideways markets, and the ever-present threat of a secular tech downturn that hasn't materialized since TQQQ's inception. Buena Vista Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images 2025 has been a strong year for my investments. My primary account has beaten the Nasdaq-100, delivering a 29% return so far this year. My other accounts have tracked closely with the S&P 500, except for my crypto This article was written by Geneva Investor 2.76K Follower s Follow Decoding markets beyond P/E. As an investor, I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s why I never try to time the market and I only buy stocks if I am willing to hold them for at least 10 years.When it comes to fundamentals, everybody knows the market is forward looking, but few understand what that means. I don’t look at a P/E number and decide to buy if a stock is “cheap”. I see markets as literally just the meeting point between demand and supply. Predicting human behavior is key.I always try to understand what the market is seeing in a stock beyond the numbers, which often implies trying to understand sectors, industries and long term growth trends. My approach requires ingenuity, curiosity and a good dose of naivete, as well as being comfortable in (sometimes) going against the current.I am based in Geneva, Switzerland (hence my SA name) and I have a Master’s Degree in Business. Friend "Rex Investing" is also a contributor to Seeking Alpha. All opinions and analysis are exclusively my own.You can follow me on Twitter @ x.com/GenevaInvestor. I am also on medium.com/@genevainvestor. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR, AMD, QQQM, TQQQ, TSLA, MARA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of...

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