2026 Market Outlook Based On Valuations

Lance Roberts 33.7K Follower s Follow 5 Share Save Play ( 16min ) Comments Summary It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and begins predicting returns for 2026. Heading into 2025, Wall Street predicted a median return of just 8.2%, with the highest estimate of nearly 15%. As we wrap up the year, the market is again closing in on a 20% return, marking the third consecutive year of such performance. The median estimate for 2026 is for the market to rise to 7500 next year, which would be a disappointing return of just 9.3% after three years of 20% gains. In 2026, outcomes will depend on earnings, inflation, and the actions of the Fed. Getty Images It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and begins predicting returns for 2026. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, which would be unwise for fee-based product revenues, these forecasts are often inaccurate This article was written by Lance Roberts 33.7K Follower s Follow After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a partner at RIA Advisors in Houston, Texas. The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process. I am a managing partner of RIA Pro, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed to individual and professional investors nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life. I also write a daily blog which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals at www.realinvestmentadvice.com.

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