Will the Russia-Ukraine war end in 2026?

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end in 2026? A Ukrainian serviceman, ex-military chief and analysts predict what lies ahead for largest European conflict since World War II. Kyiv, Ukraine - Russian soldiers are terrified of Ukrainians, says Vasily, a burly officer limping uneasily on the cobblestones of Kyiv’s Sophia Square, where Ukraine’s largest Christmas tree stands “I’ve jumped into their trenches. They’re really afraid of us,” he told Al Jazeera. Recommended Stories list of 4 items list 1 of 4 A Ukraine reporter’s guide to managing wartime blackouts caused by Russia list 2 of 4 Ukraine “to create fear” with Russian General’s killing list 3 of 4 Why is Russia escalating attacks on Ukraine’s Odesa? list 4 of 4 Zelenskyy unveils details of new peace plan, seeks Trump talks on territory However, their fear does not mean that Kyiv can dictate the end-of-war terms as Russia has more servicemen, a stronger economy and a much bigger war chest - while Ukraine remains outmanned and outgunned, he said. “When I see the enemy at 800 metres, yell into the radio that I see a tank and give its coordinates, but they say, ‘Hold on’, I realise that we simply have nothing to strike it with,” Vasily said, referring to the dire shortage of artillery shells while he was on the front line, before losing his left foot to a landmine in 2023. Vassily remained in service and asked to withhold his last name in accordance with wartime regulations. ‘One can’t hope for the full end’ A four-star general thinks, however, that the only realistic achievement could be a “pause” in the war that will enter its fifth year in February 2026. “With such an aggressive neighbour [as Russia], one can’t hope for the full end of the war,” Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera. “There won’t be peace with Russia until we liberate the lands within Ukraine’s [post-Soviet] 1991 borders,” he said. And if Moscow breaches the ceasefire pause, Kyiv would have to “stop the Russians on the front line” through a major bolstering of its military potential, he said. Kyiv would need to introduce universal and “fair” mobilisation without any exemptions, further boost domestic arms manufacturing, prioritise wartime needs in its economic decisions, and introduce stricter martial law, he said. This year, Ukraine’s military-industrial complex has provided up to 40 percent of what the armed forces need - a major boost from 15 to 20 percent in 2022. Western allies provide the remaining 60 percent - and their further aid should be “decisive and fast”, Romanenko said. “A window of opportunity” to sign a peace deal may emerge in the second half of 2026 - if Russia does not succeed in breaching the front line and advancing rapidly and realises that Kyiv can stomach the war of attrition, another analyst says. “Everything will depend on the Kremlin’s and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s personal readiness to agree,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based...

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