L.A. Production Shows No Sign of a Rebound Yet

Los Angeles production showed no sign of a rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, as the industry is still waiting for a hike in state incentives to have an effect. Production days for film, TV and commercials fell 12.3% compared to the prior quarter, according to data from FilmLA . That continues a downward trend that has persisted since 2022. The total shoot days across those categories has not increased for two quarters in a row since 2021. For 2025 overall, production volume was about half what it was in 2019. Popular on Variety California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a major expansion of the state’s film and TV production incentive in July. The California Film Commission has since allocated $771 million in tax incentives to dozens of film and TV projects, including “Jumanji,” “Heat 2,” and “Baywatch” - but any impact from that expenditure has yet to show up in the production figures. Approved projects have 180 days to begin filming from the issuance of a credit. Philip Sokoloski, a spokesman for FilmLA, said the latest figures are “disappointing” but not surprising. “FilmLA has consistently projected that the full effect of the expanded Film and Television Tax Credit Program would take time to materialize, and although our overall numbers remain low, there are dozens of incentivized projects that have yet to begin filming,” he said in a statement. According to FilmLA, 17.3% of film projects that shot on location last quarter were subsidized by the state. That was down from 19.2% in the same quarter of 2024, but up from 2023 - during the actors’ strike - when 8.7% received state subsidies. The rise of state incentives is more striking in TV, where the share of subsidized projects grew from 1.5% in Q4 of 2023 to 6.5% in Q4 of 2024. That figure rose to 11.1% in the same quarter of 2025. Among TV comedies, 31.8% of the shoot days were tied to subsidized projects, while 31% of TV drama production was state-backed. The state has traditionally backed only scripted shows, but recently added “large-scale” reality shows to the mix. But the increasing state support comes amid a dramatic overall decline. TV production days came in 50% below their five-year average in the fourth quarter, and 22% down from the same quarter in 2024. Film production was 31.7% below the five-year average and 19.7% down from Q4 of 2024. TV comedies were relatively flat compared to the same quarter in the prior year - down only 6% - but were 66% below the five-year average. TV dramas fell 36.4% in Q4 of 2025 compared to Q4 of 2024 - and came in 43.3% below the five-year average.

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