Russia unlikely to risk ‘reputation failure’ by intervening in Iran unrest

Russia unlikely to risk ‘reputation failure’ by intervening in Iran unrest A former Russian diplomat and analysts decode Moscow’s muted response to protests and political tension. The Kremlin is confident that mass protests in Iran have peaked, and Tehran’s leadership has managed to squash domestic resistance to its rule, according to one of Russia’s pre-eminent experts on Iran. Russia’s embassy in Tehran apparently informed Moscow that the protests have died down and that the Kremlin “can breathe a sigh of relief”, Nikita Smagin told Al Jazeera. The protests over economic hardships erupted on December 28, spreading to hundreds of cities and towns throughout the sanctions-hit nation of more than 90 million. Iranian law enforcement squashed them, possibly violently, and Moscow “thinks that nothing threatens Iran from within”, said Smagin, who fled Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned “the illegal Western pressure” and lambasted the unnamed “external forces” that strive to “destabilise and destroy” the Islamic Republic. “The notorious methods of ‘colour revolutions’ are being used, when specifically trained and armed provocateurs turn peaceful protests into cruel and senseless lawlessness, pogroms, the killing of law enforcement officers and average citizens, including children,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mariya Zakharova claimed. She used a decades-old Kremlin mantra about “colour revolutions” allegedly organised and paid for by the West in former Soviet nations of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan in the early 2000s to topple Moscow-friendly authoritarian governments. The threats from United States President Donald Trump to interfere in the Iranian protests are “categorically unacceptable”, Zakharova said, adding that the “decline in the artificially-instigated protests” may lead to stabilisation in Iran. On Tuesday, Trump urged Iranians to “take over institutions” and claimed that US “help is on its way”. On January 2, he wrote: “We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” and in June, called Ayatollah Ali Khamenei an “easy target”. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not commented on the protests - just as he ignored the January 3 abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Moscow’s closest ally in Latin America. Despite the condemnation of Trump’s threats, Moscow “can hardly do anything about it”, Smagin said. Prior to its Foreign Ministry’s rhetorical fireworks on Tuesday, for almost two weeks, Moscow was silent about the protests. The Kremlin was not sure that Khamenei’s administration would survive and that any harsh statements “would hinder the mending of ties with new authorities” that could have replaced it, Smagin claimed. Russia’s position appears similar to its response to the toppling of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. In October 2025, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Moscow and pledged to “honour” the deals al-Assad had made with Russia, including energy contracts and the presence of Russian air force and naval bases. To an observer in Ukraine, Moscow’s fuming about “colour revolutions” is a tired cliche. Russia interprets “any protests against dictatorship and mass rallies for democratisation as a result of external meddling”, Kyiv-based analyst Vyacheslav Likhachev told...

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