How a Leicester roundabout could decide the UK's next prime minister

The Belgrave Circle effect is hitting UK politics The growth of smaller parties and their support is stirring up the next election and could unwittingly decide who enters Downing Street. Image:Liz Kendall (left) and Jonathan Ashworth's (right) constituencies used to meet at Belgrave Circle roundabout until Ashworth lost his seat. Pic: AP Image:Labour have begun painting themselves as the "bulwark" to Nigel Farage. Pic: PA Image:If the Greens do well, it could split the left wing vote, clearing the way for another party to win in a roundabout way Image:Keir Starmer's constituency ranks thirteenth on Sky's vunerability index. David Lammy's is twenty third. Image:If Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage split the right wing vote, it may allow Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or another party to come through the middle Sunday 21 December 2025 19:43, UK This is a story about a roundabout in Leicester. It's not a particularly special roundabout. But it does tell us something about British politics. Belgrave Circle, in the north of the city, was opened in March 2015 on the site of an old railway station known locally as "The Gateway to Skegness". Later that year, Leicester - along with the rest of the country - went to the polls in the 2015 general election. The vote saw David Cameron win a majority and resign as Labour leader. Ed Miliband But around the Belgrave Circle, something different was going on. Because this is the spot where Leicester 's three parliamentary constituencies meet, and in 2015 they were all held by Labour MPs who saw their majorities increase. It's a different story now. Stand in the middle of the roundabout and face towards Abbey Park and you'll see the city's only remaining Labour seat - that of cabinet minister Liz Kendall. Turn around and face the B&M Home Store, and you'll find the only place the Conservatives picked up at the last election. This freak occurrence happened after the Labour vote was split by two independent candidates - both of whom also happened to be former MPs for the city. Labour saw its vote share cut in half here, and then some. The Tory vote dropped as well, but not by enough to stop the party coming through the middle and taking the seat by four thousand votes. But walk to the south of this roundabout and you'll get to where an independent candidate went one step further. Local optician Shockat Adam won this seat last year, defeating frontbencher Jonathan Ashworth in a campaign focused mainly on Gaza and events in the Middle East. What happened on this roundabout last July is no one-off. There's plenty of evidence to suggest these phenomena could be on the rise around the country. Since the election, Labour's vote share has plunged, and its base has fractured as support for insurgent parties on the right and left surges. A lot of the focus from this has been on Reform UK and how Labour can stop Nigel Farage in traditional 'red wall'...

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