Galaxy Digital’s head of research explains why bitcoin’s outlook is so uncertain in 2026

Galaxy Digital’s head of research explains why bitcoin’s outlook is so uncertain in 2026 Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn says options markets, falling volatility and macro risks make next year hard to forecast even as the firm keeps a bullish long-term view. What to know: Galaxy Research, the research arm of Galaxy Digital (GLXY), says overlapping macroeconomic and market risks make bitcoin unusually difficult to forecast in 2026. The firm says that options pricing and volatility trends indicate that bitcoin is maturing into a more macro-like asset, rather than a high-growth trade. Galaxy maintains a long-term bullish outlook, projecting that bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, says 2026 may be one of the most difficult years to forecast for bitcoin, even as the firm maintains a bullish long-term outlook. Bitcoin Logo (Midjourney / modified by CoinDesk) In a Dec. 21 post on X, Thorn said the coming year is “too chaotic to predict,” pointing to a mix of macro uncertainty, political risk and uneven crypto market momentum. Thorn said the comments were based on Galaxy Research’s Dec. 18 report , “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026,” which outlines the firm’s expectations for crypto markets and institutional adoption. See all newsletters At the time of writing, Thorn said the broader crypto market was already deep in a bear phase, with bitcoin struggling to re-establish sustained bullish momentum. Until the asset decisively trades above the $100,000 to $105,000 range, he said, downside risk remains. What options markets are signaling Derivatives markets underscore that uncertainty. According to Thorn, bitcoin options pricing implies roughly equal probabilities of sharply different outcomes next year, with traders assigning similar odds to prices near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026 and near $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end. Options markets are widely used by institutional investors to hedge future price risk, and such wide ranges suggest professionals are preparing for large price swings rather than a clear directional trend. Signs of structural maturity At the same time, Thorn pointed to signs of structural change beneath the surface. He said that long-term bitcoin volatility - a measure of how widely prices fluctuate over extended periods - has been declining. He attributed part of that shift to the growth of institutional strategies such as options overwriting and yield-generation programs, which tend to dampen extreme price moves. That evolution is also visible in bitcoin’s volatility smile, which describes how option prices vary across strike levels. Thorn said that downside protection is now priced more expensively than upside exposure, a pattern more commonly seen in mature macro assets, such as equities or commodities, than in high-growth markets. Why a quiet year may not matter For Thorn, those signals help explain why a potentially range-bound or “boring” 2026 would not undermine bitcoin’s longer-term case. Even if prices drift lower or approach long-term technical levels such as the 200-week moving average, he expects institutional adoption and market maturation to continue. Beyond short-term price...

Preview: ~500 words