ETMarkets Smart Talk: How to Build a Rs 10 lakh portfolio for 2026 with equities, gold, silver and bonds, Sunny Agrawal of SBI Securities decodes

With As 2026 approaches, a balanced portfolio is key. Equities are expected to offer steady returns, while global uncertainties persist. equities expected to deliver steady but not outsized returns, and global uncertainties continuing to shape markets, asset allocation will play a decisive role in long-term wealth creation. In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities , shares his framework for deploying ₹10 lakh across equities, gold , silver , and bonds , explaining how a diversified mix can balance growth, stability, and risk mitigation in the year ahead. Edited Excerpts - Q) Thanks for taking the time out. We have hit fresh record highs in November, with a 10% gain so far this year. How are we placed for 2026? A) Many thanks for giving us the opportunity to share SBI Securities’ view with ET subscribers. We believe 2026 is relatively better compared to 2025, on the back of the following: (a) likely acceleration in the earnings growth to 2-digit for FY27 and FY28, in the backdrop of low single growth in FY26 coupled with strong macros. (b) comfortable valuation for Nifty50 - Trading at 1-year forward P/E multiple of 19-20x vs 22x-23x during the last peak in Sept’24. (c) significant compression in valuation premium over MSCI EM index from 80% in Sep’24 to 47% in Dec’25, which is below the 10-year average of 57%. (d) The majority of the negative developments are discounted, like delay in the conclusion of India-US trade deal, USDINR touching life lows, geopolitical tension, persistent selling by FPIs, supply of paper by promoters, PE through IPO, OFS, Bulk/Blocks etc. (e) likely boost to the domestic consumption led by troika of (1) 125 bps reduction in repo rate, (2) income tax relief and (3) GST rationalisation coupled with good monsoon and healthy water reservoir levels and (f) likely reversal of FII flows from DMs to EMs. Q) Gold and silver outperformed by a wide margin in 2025. How will precious metals play out in 2026? Any triggers to watch out for? A) Performance of precious metals during 2026 will be subject to incremental diversification of the reserves by the central banks towards precious metals (gold/silver) as a hedge against the US dollar as a global trade currency. Silver’s consumption is also likely to increase on the back of requirement across all the new age industries. Looking at the huge debt of $36 trillion on US balance sheet, it seems dollar is no longer the only trusted safe haven and increasing trend of de-dollarisation can lead to further increase in demand for precious metals. Any significant supply squeeze in the supply of gold/silver can lead to further upside in gold and silver prices. Q) Rupee hit a fresh low against the USD surpassing the 90 mark. Are we on our way to breach the 100 mark against the USD. What is causing the fall? A) Depreciation in USDNR is driven by persistent selling by FPIs, narrative of likely increase...

Preview: ~500 words