MLB offseason grades: Red Sox deal for Contreras, White Sox land Murakami

It's hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter. Whether it's a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team's future or a blockbuster trade, we'll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond. ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training. Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | 2025-26 free agent class | Fantasy spin Jump to biggest deals: Murakami to CHW | Alonso to BAL Schwarber to PHI | Diaz to LAD | Cease to TOR Dec. 21 Red Sox solve first base, acquire Contreras from Cardinals Red Sox get: 1B Willson Contreras $8 million Cardinals get: RHP Hunter Dobbins RHP Yhoiker Fajardo RHP Blake Aita Red Sox grade: B Since Triston Casas ' debut in September 2022, the Red Sox have counted on him as their solution at first base, a position they hadn't received above-average value from on a consistent basis since the Adrian Gonzalez days in the early 2010s. Casas had a good rookie season in 2023, including a monster second half with an OPS over 1.000 that seemed to foretell a future star. Instead, he has played only 92 games over the past two seasons, including hitting .182 in 29 games in 2025. After pursuing and failing to land Pete Alonso , the Red Sox instead turn to Contreras, who has certainly been defined by his consistency, with OPS+ figures of 126, 123, 138 and 123 over the past four seasons, and a slugging percentage between .447 and .468. He has two years left on his contract at $36.5 million, plus a $17.5 million club option for 2028 (or a $6 million buyout), giving the Red Sox their first baseman for 2026 and '27 and probably putting Casas on the trade block. Contreras feels like a safe bet, but there are some warning signs here. He's entering his age-34 season, in that danger zone, and he's coming off a career-low 7.8% walk rate while also seeing his strikeout rate increase the past two seasons. But the bat speed (95th percentile) and hard-hit rate (83rd percentile) remain strong, so though he shouldn't fall off a cliff, his best days are probably behind him. The MLB average OPS at first base was .755 and Contreras' OPS in 2025 was .791, so maybe he remains slightly above average for the position, at least in 2026. It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox also do with Romy Gonzalez , who crushed lefties in 2025 while ranking fifth in the majors in hard-hit rate. He can play second base, although he has limited range there, so he probably fits best as a platoon DH while filling in at various infield positions. This probably still leaves the Red...

Preview: ~500 words