Ramzan Kadyrov is on death watch. Again.

Ramzan Kadyrov — the Chechen strongman best known for his mix of ruthless repression and performative bravado on social media — is reportedly suffering from kidney failure, according to Ukrainian intelligence. If true, his condition raises the prospect of renewed instability in a region long kept in check by brute force, just as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine enters its fifth year. Whether the reports are correct is anyone’s guess. The flamboyant 49-year-old has been declared near death before, only to reappear in public, sometimes looking ill, but still very much alive. Advertisement Yet there’s reason to pay close attention. Chechnya was the proving ground for Putin’s early use of overwhelming military force to eliminate opponents and install a loyal proxy. Kadyrov’s rule rests on a deeply personal pact with the Kremlin — one that operates beyond formal law or oversight. What follows after him will test that arrangement at a moment of unusual strain for Moscow. Artem Geodakyan/AFP via Getty Images Putin’s fixation on Chechnya dates back to 1999, when — newly installed as acting prime minister — he vowed to hunt down those he blamed for a series of Moscow apartment bombings, promising to pursue the “terrorists” “even into the outhouse.” The ensuing military campaign, known as the Second Chechen War, turned the little-known, pale-faced former KGB chief into a household name, setting him up to win the next presidential election. In a twist worthy of “Game of Thrones,” Putin tilted the balance of the brutal conflict by brokering a deal with Ramzan Kadyrov’s father, Akhmat Kadyrov, a former rebel leader. When Akhmat was assassinated in 2004, Ramzan inherited the bargain: power in exchange for absolute loyalty. Advertisement Buffered by generous federal subsidies, Kadyrov went on to rule Chechnya with a level of brutality that raised eyebrows even in an increasingly repressive Russia, presiding over, among other abuses, the abduction, torture and killings of dozens of men suspected of being gay. A frequent presence on social media and platforms like Instagram, TikTok and Telegram, Kadyrov has spent much of the past two decades building a reputation as a mercurial and ruthless despot. In the past year, he has posted a video of himself pumping iron to refute reports that he’s suffering from pancreatic cancer, dared revelers who attended an “almost naked” party to join soldiers on the front line as punishment and claimed that Elon Musk gifted him a Cybertruck , complete with a machine gun turret, for use in Ukraine. After Musk denied giving him the truck, Kadyrov accused the Tesla boss of having remotely disabled the vehicle. ‘TikTok fighters’ Putin’s brutality in Ukraine — marked by Moscow’s bombing of civilian sites and the torture of prisoners of war under the pretext of a targeted military operation — mirrors in many ways his early campaign in Chechnya. But for Kadyrov’s reputation, it has done more harm than good, said Mikhail Komin, an expert on Russian politics and a research fellow at the Center for European...

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