Is the golden age of Indie software over?

The concept of shareware appeared in the 1980s. Developers would use relatively primitive tools to create their software, then promote it via fanzines, user groups and bulletin boards to a niche audience of shareware fans. If you wanted to try the software, you would have to get hold of a floppy disk with it on. And, if you wanted to buy a licence, you would generally have to post a physical cheque to the developer. This was being an Indie developer in hard mode. A few people made a lot of money, but most vendors made modest returns on their efforts. I started selling my first software product in 2005. This was a good time to start up as an independent software vendor. High quality compilers, IDEs, debuggers, version control systems and web servers were widely available and mostly free. The market for software was growing, as more and more people purchased PCs and Macs. Payment processors were starting to streamline online payments. But the real revolution was being able to distribute your software worldwide via an increasingly ubiquitous Internet. And getting noticed by potential customers, while never easy, was generally achievable through writing content for search engines to find, paid online ads (such as Google Adwords pay per click), download sites or even ads in physical magazines. With a lot of hard work and a bit of luck, it was quite possible to make a decent living. Things have continued evolving at a rapid pace over the 20 years I have been selling software. Development tools have continued to improve. Mobile and web-based software has become mainstream. App stores have appeared. Outsourcing became a thing. Subscription payment models are increasingly common. Mostly these changes haven’t affected my business too much. But recently things have begun to feel noticeably harder. LLMs have made a major impact. While I don’t worry that LLMs will do a better job than my seating planner software , data wrangling software or visual planning software any time soon (my main competitor remains Excel), everyone is noticing that their web traffic is falling. People increasingly read LLM summaries rather than clicking on search engine links or the accompanying ads. Maybe the LLM will include a link to the website that they ripped off the content from, but probably they won’t. So writing content in the hope of traffic from search engines is becoming less and less of a viable strategy to get noticed. Other promotional channels are getting squeezed as well. Online ads are increasingly expensive and rife with click fraud. This makes it hard to get any chance of return, unless lifetime customer value is hundreds of dollars. Google Adwords is a case in point. In the early days, I could get lots of targeted clicks at an affordable price. But Google have done everything they can to raise bid prices and generally enshittify Adwords, so they can grab more and more of the value in every transaction. I now get barely any clicks at...

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