Is Bitcoin a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2026? | The Motley Fool

If technical analysis were an exact science, Bitcoin ( BTC +0.19%) would be soaring right now. However, the charts forgot to check the news. More importantly, they forgot that the structure of the whole crypto market fundamentally changed in 2024 and 2025. The four-year cycle isn't broken. It's either retired or on vacation. VanEck and 21Shares analysts recently published fresh overviews of the broader crypto market and the specific Bitcoin situation. Both firms are basically saying the same thing: The four-year Bitcoin halving cycle still matters symbolically, but it's no longer the engine that drives crypto prices higher over time. A few themes stood out in their reports: Bitcoin's annual issuance is now below 1% -- less than gold's inflation rate. That's a nice, symbolic milestone, but also a sign that the upcoming halvings will carry less power. Each halving cuts the mining rewards by less, because there's less left to cut. That's just mathematics. The buyers have changed. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and sovereign governments absorbed more than the total number of mined Bitcoins in 2025. This is patient, sticky capital setting up shop -- not retail FOMO-chasers looking at charting indicators. Bitcoin's volatility is compressing. The recent drawdowns stopped at 30%, compared to 60% wipeouts (and more) in the first three cycles. Bitcoin is launching fewer moonshots, but fewer face-melting crashes too. In other words, it's starting to behave like a mature financial asset, earning its "digital gold" moniker. CRYPTO: BTC Key Data Points Bitcoin's bull case Crypto isn't just for enthusiasts anymore. Deep-pocketed investors are building large Bitcoin positions, led by Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) and its 671,268 coins. At today's prices, that's a $58.9 billion Bitcoin portfolio. Eleven other companies have converted at least $1 billion of cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. The list includes Bitcoin miners like MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms , but also Elon Musk's Tesla and the Trump Media & Technology Group . Traditional banks and financial services are still nowhere to be found among the 100 largest Bitcoin holders, but 2026 could change that. With easy access to spot Bitcoin ETFs, cash managers can add Bitcoin exposure to their balance sheets through ordinary stock-trading channels. According to 21Shares, about 7% of the Bitcoins in circulation already sit in ETF portfolios. That ratio should increase in the coming years, as massive investment services like Morgan Stanley are allowed to recommend Bitcoin funds. And let's not forget about Bitcoin's potential as a hedge against macroeconomic jitters. As of Dec. 23, gold prices are up by 71% year to date, far outpacing a 16% gain for the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC +0.32%) stock market index. Investors are starving for safe havens. If Bitcoin can connect to just a small slice of that gigantic market, it would chip away at the glittery metal's $31 trillion of total market value. The charts from earlier halving periods couldn't predict any of this, because the market dynamics have changed with ETFs...

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