I correctly predicted ChatGPT. Here are my 6 AI predictions for 2026

Just when you think you’ve wrapped your mind around computers that can put your dog in front of the Eiffel Tower or chatbots that act like your best friend (or lover), the AI behemoths surprise you with a fully AI-powered TikTok or the ability to virtually bring back your dead relatives. I’ve worked in the AI space for 15 years. I served as an early beta tester for OpenAI in 2020, when I predicted that a little model called GPT-3 had world-changing potential. It was later released as something called “ChatGPT” –perhaps you’ve heard of it? I’ve also called several big AI trends correctly, including the rise of video generators and the “AI Wars” between Google and OpenAI. Based on my experience, here are my six AI predictions for 2026 and beyond. 1. OpenAI goes garlic In late 2025, Google’s Gemini model started to gain ground on OpenAI and its GPT-5.1 system. That apparently really irked Sam Altman and the OpenAI team. Altman reportedly called a “code red,” directing staff to focus all their efforts on besting Google. Rumor had it they were developing a new, fully re-trained thinking model, codenamed Garlic. When OpenAI did a surprise drop of a new GPT-5.2 model in mid December, lots of people thought it might be Garlic coming to market. Based on my own testing, it’s not. Or at least, it’s not the complete model. GPT-5.2 is indeed better than the previous model. It’s faster and more efficient, and makes fewer errors. It’s also notably better at scientific tasks, and practical ones like coding. But now it appears there will be a second new OpenAI release, which I expect to come out in January. That’s most likely the full Garlic model. This new model, I predict, will have a new knowledge cutoff sometime in 2025, a broader context window, and much better image generation capabilities. It will also be faster and more efficient to run, especially on “thinking” tasks. 2. Google’s Gemini continues its march toward domination Whenever it finally arrives, Garlic will enter the world with plenty of competition. Google was very slow to roll up to the generative AI table. For a company that’s been working in deep learning for decades and has some of the most intelligent people in the world working for it, that felt like a big miss. Google had reportedly developed its own ChatGPT years before OpenAI, but chickened out on releasing it. In the beginning of the AI race, that allowed OpenAI to very loudly and publicly eat Google’s lunch. The history of science, though, is littered with examples where early innovators weren’t the ones who successfully commercialized a new technology. Just ask Joseph Swan , the true inventor of the lightbulb. You’ve never heard of him. But you do know Thomas Edison, who made the lightbulb a widely available technology—and did a great job promoting his invention (and himself) in the process. Historically, first-mover advantage has proven surprisingly inconsequential in the tech space. And now...

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