How climate breakdown is putting the world’s food in peril - in maps and charts

Experts have warned that the world’s ability to feed itself is under threat from the “chaos” of extreme weather caused by climate change. Crop yields have increased enormously over the past few decades. But early warning signs have arrived as crop yield rates flatline, prompting warnings of efficiency hitting its limits and the impacts of climate change taking effect. At first glance trends seem positive. Farming methods have become more and more efficient over the last 80 years. However, multiple projections suggest that climate change will soon have key crops plateauing, then sliding down again. The chart shows how crop yields could fall over the rest of the century under a high-emissions scenario. The effects of climate change are predicted to reduce the yields of all of these key crops. This modelling only takes into account forecasts for climate change and income growth, and does not account for other factors that may limit this effect or boost yields, such as technological innovations or land use changes. Meanwhile, the world’s population is expected to grow by a further 2 billion by the end of the century. Experts have warned that, under high-emission scenarios, future crop yields could decrease by a quarter. This is largely because of extreme weather events wreaking havoc on agriculture. In just the last two years, increasing extremes seen with “global weirding” have had an impact on agriculture, with wild fluctuations in rainfall attributed to a number of record low yields. The map below shows some extreme weather events between 2023 and 2024, and how they are imperilling our ability to grow food. Efficiency masks a growing problem Extreme weather events pose a major threat to food security around the world. This map shows how rainfall cycles in the last couple of years have changed compared with the 1991-2020 average. Some places have been hit by rainfall at twice the normal rate, whereas other usually wet places record months with barely any rain. This has led to harvest yields in disarray. Record rainfall in eastern China June-August 2023 At least 16 cities and provinces across eastern China faced record rainfall and flooding between June and August in 2023. Tens of thousands of hectares of crops were damaged or destroyed. About 5m metric tonnes of corn - about 2% of the country’s output - were affected, while national rice production dropped by about 5% due to the floods. Washouts in England and France Winter 2023-24 In 2024 England suffered its second worst harvest on record after heavy rain, with the wheat haul dropping by a fifth. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit predicted farmers could lose £600m on wheat, winter and spring barley, oats and oilseed rape. Wine harvests were down by as much as 75% in some regions. France saw a 25% drop in soft wheat production, its smallest harvest in 41 years. As in England, excessive rain disrupted every step of cultivation. Disaster in southern Africa February 2024 Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe declared a national...

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